Methodology

How MyFinverse thinks about investing

Every score, every flag and every conclusion comes from clear rules and data you can check.

This is the whole analytical framework, step by step.

Contents

How MyFinverse thinks

MyFinverse is not an oracle. It reads public data by fixed rules and shows you what it found, together with how much that finding can carry.

  1. Data
  2. Metric
  3. Interpretation
  4. Pillar
  5. Score
  6. Investment view
  • Deterministic

    The same data always produces the same result. No model that changes its mind between visits.

  • Transparent

    Every score shows what it was built from and how much each component weighs.

  • In context

    A number on its own means nothing. It always belongs to a company type, its history and its sector.

  • Honest about certainty

    When data is incomplete or stale we say so, instead of filling in the gap.

All scores and metrics are deterministic context from public data — not investment advice.

First we understand the company.

What it actually sells, who pays for it and where the money comes from. Without that, every later number is just a number.

How we analyse a company

11 areas we work through when reading a company, in four movements.

Understand the business

  1. 01 Understanding the company
  2. 02 Revenue
  3. 03 Profitability

Verify with numbers

  1. 04 Cash generation
  2. 05 Financial resilience
  3. 06 Capital allocation
  4. 07 Dividend

Judge

  1. 08 Competitive position & outlook
  2. 09 Price & expected return

Decide

  1. 10 Thesis & decision
  2. 11 Compare, reflect & monitor

Track TRAINING_01 v0.2 · 3/11 areas are available as a guided step today.

Then we ask how good it is.

Whether it earns, whether that lasts, and whether what it pays out is really covered.

Dividend Safety Score

How likely a company is to keep paying its dividend, and to keep raising it. It judges durability, not the size of the next payment.

  • 70–100 Strong The dividend looks durable: the payment is covered and the history is long.
  • 40–69 Moderate The dividend is sustainable for now, but more sensitive to a bad year.
  • 0–39 Weak The payment is stretched or has no history. Find out why before relying on it.

What the score is made of

  • Payout sustainability 30 % How much of earnings and cash goes out as dividend

    At its best Payout well below both earnings and cash flow

  • Track record 25 % Consecutive years without a decline

    At its best 15 years or more without a cut

  • Dividend growth 20 % How fast the dividend grows over the long run

    At its best Long-run growth around 8–15 % a year

  • Yield 15 % Yield against the sector and its own history

    At its best Yield in the 2.5–5.5 % sweet spot

  • Payment frequency 10 % How often the dividend is paid

    At its best Monthly payments

100 % The five components are weighted, then summed. Nothing else enters the number.

Why these five factors?

Why is the payout ratio the heaviest component?

Because it says how much room a company has left when a bad year arrives. A company paying out most of its earnings has nothing to trim elsewhere, so the dividend goes. REITs get a wider band, because accounting profit understates their ability to pay.

Why does a long history matter so much?

An unbroken payment across several different years is evidence of how management behaves, not a promise. A company that did not cut through the bad years has shown where the dividend sits in its priorities.

Why can a high yield be a warning?

Yield also rises when the price falls. An extreme figure often means the market expects a cut, which is why our score penalises it rather than rewarding it.

How do we read dividend growth?

Fast growth without a history is suspicious, not good — cyclical companies raise the payout right before cutting it. So growth is gated by the length of the record, and sharp spikes are discounted.

What can the score NOT tell you?

It does not say whether the stock is cheap, or whether you should buy it. It knows nothing of management's plans, a coming acquisition, or anything that happens after today. It reads the past and the current ability to pay — no more.

What the history showed

0–4 % of companies scoring Strong later cut their dividend
~56 % of companies scoring Weak later cut their dividend

A backtest against dividend cuts in the cached universe over roughly the last five years. It says the score separated the two groups in the past. The dataset, its date and its sample size are not published, so read it as an indication — never as the probability for one particular company.

The four questions MyFinverse asks of every company

A deterministic read of a company from its fundamentals. Four pillar scores combine into one neutral label, with the reasons behind it. Facts and context, never a buy or sell recommendation.

Quality

Is this a good business?

Business quality from returns on capital, margins and the ability to generate cash.

What goes into it
  • Return on equity (ROE) 25
  • Return on assets (ROA) 15
  • Net margin 15
  • Gross margin 15
  • Operating margin 15
  • Free cash flow margin 15
Financial strength

Can it survive trouble?

Balance-sheet resilience: leverage, interest cover, liquidity and positive free cash flow.

This pillar has no single weight table. Its thresholds change with the asset type, and for banks and mortgage REITs it abstains rather than applying ratios that would mislead.

Value

What am I paying for it today?

Cheapness on multiples — a margin of safety, not a buy signal.

What goes into it
  • Trailing P/E 20
  • Forward P/E 15
  • Price to book 15
  • EV/EBITDA 20
  • Free cash flow yield 20
  • Analyst upside 10
Income

Is the income good and sustainable?

Dividend attractiveness and safety: yield, payout ratio, trend and history.

What goes into it
  • Dividend yield 25
  • Payout ratio 25
  • Dividend trend 20
  • Length of history 20
  • Payment frequency 10
  • 70–100 Strong
  • 45–69 Fair
  • 0–44 Weak
  • 50 % Insufficient

Confidence is high when at least 80 % of a pillar's inputs are present. Below 50 % no score is shown at all — the pillar is left unassessed rather than guessed.

Decision engine version 1.0. Two results computed by different versions are not directly comparable.

A good company is not automatically a good buy.

So we keep the quality of the business apart from the price you pay for it today.

Valuation Context

MyFinverse does not calculate a fair value and will never tell you what a share is worth. It places today's price in four kinds of context and leaves the conclusion to you.

What it compares
Today's dividend yield against the same stock's own five-year history.
Why it matters
High in its own range means the stock is more generous than usual — often because it has become cheaper.
What can distort it
If the dividend was recently raised or cut, it is being compared against a past that no longer applies.

What it compares
The stock's metric against the median of a comparable group, chosen by asset family first, then sector.
Why it matters
Cheap or expensive only means something against something. The group is that something.
What can distort it
A small or mixed group. And a whole sector can be expensive at once.

What it compares
The consensus analyst price target against the current price.
Why it matters
A quick read on what the market expects — market context, not our opinion.
What can distort it
Targets follow the price rather than lead it, and coverage is thin for smaller companies.

What it compares
A high yield against dividend safety and any recent cut.
Why it matters
A high yield can mean a generous company — or a price that fell on bad news.
What can distort it
A one-off special dividend inflates the yield while saying nothing about the company.

A good investment does not automatically belong in your portfolio.

That depends on what you already hold — and how much of it rests on the same one thing.

Portfolio exposure

Where your capital and your income are concentrated. All percentages are of the current portfolio (or of annual dividends for income).

Warnings — when we point something out

Crossing one of these makes MyFinverse mention the position. It is an observation, not an instruction to sell.

One position, share of portfolio value
≥ 15 %
One asset family, share of value
≥ 30 %
One sector, share of value
≥ 30 %
One asset family, share of annual dividends
≥ 40 %
One name, share of annual dividends
≥ 25 %
Top three names, share of dividends
≥ 50 %
Dividends from holdings with weak safety
≥ 25 %

Targets — comfort caps for sizing

Default caps for the higher-risk families. These are planning targets, a different job from the warnings on the left.

Dividend growth
50 %
Value
50 %
BDC
25 %
Equity REIT
20 %
Mortgage REIT
15 %
Crypto
10 %
Speculative
10 %
One family's share of income
35 %

Above target, and far above at 1.5×.

Some companies cannot be read with the ordinary frame.

REITs, mortgage REITs, BDCs and banks have a different economy, so we change what we measure.

Specialised assets

Some companies cannot be read with the standard corporate frame. Where that is true, MyFinverse changes what it measures — or declines to measure it.

Equity REITs

Why the usual metrics fall short
Accounting profit is reduced by property depreciation, which is not a cash outflow, so the payout ratio looks worse than it is.
What we use instead
Coverage against FFO/AFFO, a wider payout band, and earnings multiples left out.
What to watch
Occupancy, NAV trend and the debt maturity wall — trouble shows up there before it reaches the yield.

Mortgage REITs

Why the usual metrics fall short
Leverage is part of their business model rather than a warning, so ordinary debt ratios do not measure risk here.
What we use instead
Book value trend and payment coverage; the financial strength pillar abstains.
What to watch
Falling book value and rate sensitivity — the dividend is often the next thing to go.

BDCs

Why the usual metrics fall short
They lend to smaller companies, so risk is decided by the quality of the loan book, not by an operating margin.
What we use instead
Non-accruals, NAV trend and coverage of the payment from net interest income.
What to watch
Rising non-accruals, and a payment funded by return of capital rather than earnings.

Banks

Why the usual metrics fall short
Revenue margins are meaningless for a bank, and debt to equity measures something different than it does for a manufacturer.
What we use instead
Metrics that would mislead are skipped and the financial strength pillar abstains.
What to watch
Capital adequacy and loan quality — our public data does not reach them, so check those yourself.

REIT Risk Score

A risk score for REITs, mortgage REITs and BDCs, built from seven weighted factors. Weights differ by category; a factor with no data is excluded and the rest are renormalised.

Lower is safer here — the opposite of every other score on this page.

  • 0–30 Low risk
  • 31–55 Medium risk
  • 56–100 High risk
The full weight matrix
Weight of each factor, by category
Factor Equity REIT Mortgage REIT BDC
Dividend coverage (FFO/AFFO) 25 25 25
Leverage (D/E, interest cover) 15 13 10
NAV / book-value trend 13 24 18
Sector sentiment (your rating) 8 8 8
Occupancy / non-accrual 14 5 19
Valuation extreme (P/NAV, P/FFO) 10 10 10
Debt maturity wall (≤ 24 months) 15 15 10
Total 100 100 100

Each factor's own contribution and its data quality are shown on the REIT asset detail page.

No conclusion is better than the data under it.

So every result carries how complete and how fresh the data behind it is.

Data and confidence

How fresh and complete the data behind a number is — so you know how much to lean on it.

  • 0 High signals missing or stale
  • 1–2 Medium signals missing or stale
  • 3+ Limited signals missing or stale

Missing data ≠ a weak investment

Low confidence says our picture is thin, not that the business is bad. It is a reason to look further, never a verdict on the company.

What we check
  • Sector unknown
  • Dividend history incomplete
  • Analyst coverage limited
  • Valuation inputs missing
  • Data stale

Data older than 24 h counts as stale, and stale data can never be rated high confidence. A dividend history shorter than 5 years counts as incomplete.

Reading the methodology is not enough. Learn to use it.

This page explains how the system works. Training walks you through a real company, one area at a time, and the analysis you end up with is yours.

  1. Guided analysis I walk you through it step by step.
  2. Assisted analysis You know the process. Help is there when you need it.
  3. Independent analysis You build the analysis. MyFinverse responds to your conclusions.
  4. Autonomous analysis You lead the research. MyFinverse is a second analyst. Final level

4 levels, 3 transitions between them. Completing analyses opens the next, less guided level; a level once opened is never taken back.

Investment Training is still being built and is not open to all accounts yet.

Glossary

The terms this product actually uses, in the sense it uses them.

Yield
Annual dividend divided by the current share price — the income rate you get at today's price.
Yield on Cost (YoC)
Annual dividend divided by what YOU paid (your cost basis) — your personal yield, not the market's.
Payout Ratio
The share of earnings (or FFO/AFFO for REITs) paid out as dividends. Lower leaves more cushion.
AFFO
Adjusted Funds From Operations — a REIT's recurring cash flow after maintenance capex; the strictest base for judging dividend coverage.
NAV
Net Asset Value — the per-share value of a fund's assets minus liabilities. A price below NAV is a discount, above is a premium.
P/FFO
Price to Funds From Operations — the REIT equivalent of a P/E ratio; how many times cash flow you pay for the shares.
Dividend Cut
A reduction in the dividend versus the prior period — a key reliability warning.
DRIP
Dividend Reinvestment Plan — automatically using dividends to buy more shares, compounding income over time.
SWR
Safe Withdrawal Rate — the share of a portfolio you can withdraw yearly without running out (the classic rule of thumb is ~4%).
FIRE
Financial Independence, Retire Early — having enough invested that the income covers your expenses.
Akcie
Když firma chce růst, rozdělí se na malé kousky (akcie) a každý prodá. Kdo má akcii, vlastní mini-část firmy. Když firma vydělá, vyděláš s ní i ty.
Dividenda
Kapesné od firmy. Když má zisk, část pošle akcionářům. Příklad: Realty Income (akcie O) posílá ~26 centů na akcii každý měsíc. Máš-li 100 akcií, dostaneš $26 měsíčně.
Yield (Výnos)
Kolik procent dostaneš zpět ročně jen z dividend. Pravidlo: Yield × cena akcie = roční dividenda. Yield 5 % z investovaných $100 = $5 zpět za rok (jen z dividend, bez růstu ceny).
Payout ratio
Z každého dolaru co firma vydělá, kolik procent ti rozdá jako dividendu. Pod 90 % = zdravé (firma si něco nechává na růst). Nad 100 % = rozdává víc než vydělá → buď z rezerv, nebo si půjčuje.
REIT
Firma co vlastní budovy a pronajímá je. Když koupíš akcii REITu, máš mikro-kousek tisíců budov. Z nájmu se ti rozděluje kapesné. Příklad: Realty Income (O) vlastní 15 000 obchodů po celém světě.
eREIT
Klasický REIT — vlastní fyzické budovy (sklady, obchody, kanceláře) a vybírá nájem. Příklady: O (Realty Income), STAG (sklady), VICI (kasína).
mREIT
REIT co nevlastní budovy — místo nich drží 'půjčky na byty' (hypotéky). Vydělává na rozdílu úroků. Riskantnější: když Fed rychle zvyšuje sazby, firma prodělává. Příklad: AGNC.
BDC
Půjčovna pro střední firmy. Banky jim nepůjčí (moc malé/riskantní), tak si půjčí od BDC. BDC ti pak rozděluje úroky z půjček. Příklad: MAIN (Main Street Capital), ARCC.
Risk Score
Semafor jak rizikové je tvoje pozice: <strong style="color:#10b981">0–35 NÍZKÉ</strong> (klidné, jako spořicí účet s lepším úrokem), <strong style="color:#f59e0b">36–65 STŘEDNÍ</strong> (kompromis), <strong style="color:#ef4444">66+ VYSOKÉ</strong> (možný velký výnos ale i propad). App ho počítá ze 7 ukazatelů.
FFO
Pro REITy speciální verze zisku. Standardní účetnictví odepisuje hodnotu budov jako náklad, ale budovy ve skutečnosti hodnotu drží (možná i rostou). FFO ten odpis přidá zpět = realističtější pohled co REIT skutečně vydělal.
AFFO
Adjusted FFO. FFO mínus opravy budov (střechy, klimatizace, výtahy). Nejčistší pohled na to co REIT skutečně dostane do kapsy a může rozdat akcionářům.
NII
Net Investment Income — pro BDC: kolik si půjčovna za rok vydělala čistého (úroky vybrané od dlužníků − náklady na provoz: mzdy, kanceláře). Klíčová otázka: pokrývá NII slíbenou dividendu?
NAV
Net Asset Value. Kdyby REIT prodal všechny budovy a splatil dluhy, kolik by zbylo na 1 akcii. Měl by mírně růst (~3 % ročně, sleduje inflaci). Velký pokles = budovy ztratily hodnotu.
BV (Book Value)
Účetní hodnota majetku firmy na 1 akcii. Pro mREIT a BDC zásadní, protože jejich majetek (dluhopisy, půjčky) se přeceňuje podle trhu a v krizích rychle padá.
Leverage / Páka
Kolikrát víc dluhu firma má oproti vlastním penězům. Páka 5× = na $1 vlastních má $5 půjčených. Vyšší = větší zisky v dobrém, větší ztráty v špatném. Co je 'normální' se liší per typ firmy!
10-Q
Každé 3 měsíce musí firma americkému státu nahlásit jak jí jde. Tenhle dokument se jmenuje 10-Q a najdeš ho zdarma na sec.gov. Obsahuje všechna důležitá čísla — zisk, dluh, počet akcií, hotovost.
TTM
Trailing Twelve Months = posledních 12 měsíců. 'TTM dividenda $3,17' znamená že za posledních 12 měsíců firma vyplatila $3,17 na akcii.